Will French President Nicolas Sarkozy's agenda for France prevail?

Yes

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by Karole Cuddihy

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Mr Sarkozy, in his victory speech, said: "My priority will be to do everything to so that we will continue to speak, to understand, to work together. The people of France have spoken. They have chosen to break with the ideas, the habits and the behavior of the past."

The answer to this question depends on what one considers success in this context. If by success one means a substantial and sustained reduction in France's chronic unemployment (which is particularly high among first- and second-generation immigrants and 20-somethings), then Sarkozy has a better chance than his opponent in the presidential election, Segolene Royal, because he at least has a plan. The fiscal stimulus package introduced in parliament in July is the first step in that direction. The country's labour laws need reform as well - something that eluded President Chirac - his last three prime ministers all suffered street protests over this question. One key test in this regard will be whether Labour minister Xavier Bertrand sticks to his guns in seeking to push through two key measures in the coming weeks: the requirement for 48 hours' notice prior to a strike and for a secret ballot. Mr Sarkozy's government will need to show it is not under the foot of the trade union movement, which after all represents a very low percentage of the Frenhc workforce - perhaps 8 per cent.

On the broader economic picture, Mr Sarkozy inherits the legacy of the punitive tax hikes and nationalisation policies of the 1980's. France also has a long history of dirigisme. The level of state direction of the economy exceeds that in many other Western democracies; there has been nothing to compare with Margaret Thatcher's wave of privatisation and economic liberalisation. Mr Sarkozy, however, is a fan of "national champions" - big, long-established state companies. (For example, as minister for the the interior he sought to protect French engineering giant Alstom SA from the advances of Germany rival Siemens AG.) Such an approach, along with his comments in favour of increased political control over the European Central Bank, has the potential to have him engaged in running battles with Brussels for much of his presidency. He would do well to tone down the rhetoric in that regard and concentrate his energies on the major domestic economic reform. After all in 2006 only Portugal and Italy registered lower than France's 2.1 per cent economic growth.

On the international front, Sarkozy promised better relations with the United States. Again, progress on this front should be forthcoming - if only because of the parlous state to which relations descended under Mr Chirac. Mr Sarkozy does not share his predecessor's disdain for America (or for its current president), as evidenced by his victory speech, in which he addressed his "American friends", stating "I want to tell them that France will always be by their side when they need. I also want to tell them that friendship means accepting that friends can have different opinions." On the substance of foreign policy, not much is known: little was said on the issue during the election campaign. It is unlikely, for example, that Sarkozy would have joined the coalition that invaded Iraq, but he is also unlikely to have played the anti-American card as brazenly as Mr Chirac or Gerhard Schroeder, the former German chancellor. Sarkozy has described Iran's leaders as "extremely dangerous" and will not be averse to maintaining a unified approach to pressurising, and negotiating with, Iran over its nuclear programme. Sarkozy was amiguous during the campaign about the presence of French troops in Afghanistan, saying at one point that a "long-term" presence there was "not definitive." At the recent 2007 G8 meeting, however, Sarkozy said "I told our Canadian and American friends and our allies that we will not break the allies' solidarity in the battle that is under way against terrorism in Afghanistan and that is under way to stabilise the Afghan state" and announced a plan to add 150 troops (bringing the total to 1,150), in order to help train Afghan forces.

A lot of foreign policy is perception: Sarkozy has a chance to make a fresh start. As with the domestic economy, the smart bet is on incremental progress. There will be disputes and setbacks, but moderate improvement is an attainable goal.

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