No

by Todd Daigneault

Created on: June 18, 2007   Last Updated: August 01, 2011

I don't really believe that Kuwait's refusal to allow US troops to launch strikes against Iran signals a decline in US prestige among friendly Arab neighbours. Kuwait has been in the crosshairs of combatants since the late 1980's. It started with the "tanker war" between Iraq and Iran in the late 1980's, with Kuwaiti tankers being reflagged by the US, to protect the tankers against Iranian forces. Iran was poised to invade Kuwait, if Basra had fallen in southern Iraq to a huge Iranian invasion force during the latter part of the long-running Iran-Iraq war.

Later in 1990, Kuwait was crushed by Iraq. Kuwait is a small sliver of land that can be invaded and conquered easily. Even a large American military presence there could not deter a determined Iranian commando and missile strike against their oil facilities in response to an American and Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. In the event of a massive Iranian counterattack against southern Iraq, Kuwait could fall quite easily. Existing American forces may have to retreat from Kuwait if there is an all-out war.

Kuwait, even with substantial American re-arming and re-training, is simply too small of a country and too small of a population to fight off a well-armed, well-trained large Iranian force. It's just survival for Kuwait, who now nervously eyes Iran's acquisition of state-of-the art weaponry that could devastate Kuwaiti oilfields, much like Saddam Hussein's forces did almost twenty years ago. The friendly Arab countries are seeing war coming, much like the rest of us. It's in the news everyday...it's now part of our psyche and mindset. Iran has whole new classes of weapons that could devastate the Persian Gulf countries, destroying oil facilities and blocking passage of oil tankers through the Straits of Hormuz.

With Kuwait, it simply is a matter of survival, not necessarily a decline in US prestige among friendly Arab countries. The decline in US prestige probably came more when the US invaded Iraq, not the refusal to allow the US to launch the strikes...Kuwait is still scarred from the war of almost two decades ago, and simply cannot allow any chance of it happening again. Iran would respond immediately to US strikes from Kuwaiti soil by devastating the country with missile and commando attacks.

The sad part of it if war breaks out in the Gulf with Iran, Kuwait and other Gulf countries will probably end up being dragged into the war anyways. But Kuwait and other countries will obviously not precipate or directly be part of an attack. But these countries will invariably be dragged into the war. Kuwait is easily in shelling range of Iran, who will still view these countries as part of the cabal against it during any new, far more potentially catastrophic war.

Update as of July, 2009: Kuwait, knowing full-well the effects of war and occupation remains out of any potential strike against Iran. With a new US president very reluctant to engage in war with Iran-the onus shifts to Israel-with potential US involvement if the conflict expands. Although Kuwait remains firmly out of any potential war, ultimately it will be dragged in during a potential Iranian counterattack, with US military backing. Therefore, there is no real decline in US prestige among Arab states.

In fact, there seems a consensus among some of the Gulf states, and other Aran countries that Iran has to be dealt with before they come after them. Revolutionary Guards leading the vanguard of an invasion with nuclear missiles. If anything, and especially with a new pragmatic US president, that US prestige is growing.

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