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War in Iraq
RSS FeedSetting a timetable for troop withdrawal from Iraq is a terrible mistake
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| Agree | 48% | 622 votes | Total: 1305 votes | |
| Disagree | 52% | 683 votes |
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Add to FavoritesModern warfare is all about delivering effects to achieve measurable conditions. The faster it can be done the better. However, any nation that fought a war to a timetable rather than conditions on the ground would risk defeat or certainly severe unintended consequences. A timetable for US withdrawal without any reference to the situation within Iraq would be one of the worst mistakes in US history.
A timetable for troop withdrawal would embolden the insurgents and allow them to carry out detailed planning. Iran has told its militia groups in Iraq that the US must be seen to be defeated. A timetable for US withdrawal would allow the insurgents to stockpile weapons and train fighters so that attacks could be built up to a crescendo as the last US troops departed thereby allowing the insurgents to say they kicked the US out of Iraq. Casualties on both sides would almost certainly be the highest seen in Iraq so far but the insurgents know that every single US death is a propaganda victory. They would be prepared to take immense casualty rates themselves in order to achieve an increased number of US deaths. A timetable for withdrawal would lead to a blood bath on the scale of Vietnam.
Criminals, rival tribes and religious leaders from all sects would manoeuvre to be in position to exploit the inevitable power vacuum that would result from a US withdrawal. There is no way that even the best Iraqi troops and police could hope to replicate the security provided by 150,000 US troops. A declared timetable would allow all groups to calculate when the balance of security would tip in their favour. Iraq would become a patchwork of feudal warlords, criminal gangs and religious groupings bent on sectarian genocide. Iraq's neighbours would not be able to stand by and watch their fellow religious groupings in Iraq get slaughtered. Saudi Arabia would move to protect the minority Sunnis. This would force Iran to intervene to shore up the majority Shia population. The result would be an escalating regional war. Oil prices would sky rocket and the global economy would be severely affected.
Another huge problem would be from refugees. The vast majority of Iraq's population abhor violence and just want to raise their families and live their lives in peaceful conditions. A declared timetable for a US withdrawal would also be a countdown to anarchy. Refugees would pour out of Iraq as the withdrawal clock started ticking. Syria, Jordan and Iran would become inundated with millions upon millions of Iraqis fleeing the country ahead of the US withdrawal. These countries are already straining to deal with the current refugee crisis, more would be a humanitarian disaster.
A timetable for US withdrawal from Iraq would be a terrible mistake. As ever in conflict it would be the soldiers and ordinary civilians who would pay the price.
Learn more about this author, Nick Sawyer.
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Disagree
"Stop disagreeing with President Bush" is what these people are really saying. They object to a timetable only because it recognizes a dangerous truth. There's no real reason to be in Iraq, except to avoid the embarrassment of admitting it was all a huge mistake.
None of this political hot air against "timetables" is really about anyone's security. It's not about the security of the people of Iraq, and it's completely irrelevant to the security of the people of America. It's certainly not about protecting the safety of America's soldiers. The truth is it's only about the political security of George Bush and his Republican friends. They all know we'll be leaving Iraq, but they won't announce a timetable because they're afraid it'll make them look bad.
The Iraq war is now the most important issue with American voters. So President Bush (and Republicans who supported him) need to pretend the Iraq war WASN'T a mistake. "In fact," they'll lie, "the Iraq war is going GREAT, and anyone disagreeing with us must just be stupid and dangerous." But when politicians speak less than the truth, Americans should challenge them.
In reality, America is CAUSING a lot of the violence in Iraq. Iraqis remember what U.S. troops did at Abu Ghraib, and how contractors gun down unarmed Iraqi civilians. Announcing that the U.S. is, yes, really leaving, and on an honest timetable, would eliminate those attacks that are aimed at discouraging American involvement.
Everyone knows this, but Republicans love to argue that they're "strong" where Democrats are "weak." So for purely political reasons, they've invented the need for MORE troops. Even after Bush's own study group recommended a troop reduction, Bush imagined a fantasy world instead where more troops could somehow magically create a safe period in which Iraq's new government could take hold.
But that hasn't happened, and even the most optimistic Iraq observers now concede that the best hope lies in dividing Iraq into smaller countries rather than try to foist a peaceful co-existence onto bitter ethnic rivals. So why are we throwing more soldiers into the desert? So President Bush can save face.
In fact, in this "fight against terrorism," President Bush has already ended more American lives than Osama bin Laden. If we want to save American lives, it's time to start the fight against Bush. John Kerry said it best. "How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?" But the solution isn't asking more men to die after him.
This isn't even a strategic problem, it's a political problem. A timetable can't be announced because it damages Bush's political party - so they hurl fierce accusations at anyone suggesting it. But for President Bush's supporters to shout down disagreements in this way is to try to kill democracy itself. It's important to stand up to those unpatriotic Republican fools, and insist that troops SHOULD BE withdrawn from Iraq on a timetable.
It's what's best for the soldiers, for Iraq, and ultimately - for America.
Learn more about this author, Moe Zilla.
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Difference of opinion? Debate now.
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