SB

by Steven Gomez

Created on: January 02, 2011

Though it's a shallow way to compare two conferences, the easiest piece of evidence that the Sun Belt is currently a better NCAA Women's Basketball Conference than the Atlantic Sun is in the recent track record: Two of the Sun Belt's teams (Middle Tennessee State and Ark-Little Rock) made the 2010 NCAA Tournament, compared to the Atlantic Sun's one (East Tennessee State).

Sure, you can chalk that up to luck with regards to strength of schedule between two fairly similar small conferences.  Each conference had three teams that finished with 10 or fewer losses: ETSU, Fla-Gulf Coast and South Carolina State in the Atlantic Sun, and MTSU, Ark-Little Rock and Western Kentucky in the Sun Belt.  Each team had an average RPI in the weakish 0.45-0.50 range, with the Sun Belt's average of 0.49 edging out the Atlantic Sun's 0.46.  That's fairly close, even given the Sun Belt's slight edge.

However, the real proof in the pudding of the Sun Belt's relative superiority is in strength ratings over multiple seasons.  The Sun Belt's teams finished 2009-2010 with a more consistent strength of schedule and performance than the Atlantic Sun.  No Sun Belt team had an RPI weaker than 0.41, while two Atlantic Sun teams finished below that: Stetson (0.40) and Lipscomb (0.37).

Even the records bear out the Sun Belt's advantage.  Four Atlantic Sun teams finished with 20 or more losses while three of their teams finished with single digit wins.  Compare to the Sun Belt where only three teams posted 20+ losses and the only two Sun Belt teams with single digit losses, North Texas and Louisiana-Lafayette, each came close to double digits with 9 wins apiece.

Even in the present 2010-2011 season, the Sun Belt came out of the gate with a significant strength advantage.  According to Jeff Sagarin's team strength ratings as of 1/2/2011, the Sun Belt Conference's average 66.26 rating is 17th best among the 33 active NCAA Division I women's basketball conferences, right around average.  However, the Atlantic Sun has an average 57.67 rating, good for 31st out of 33 and making them one of the NCAA's weakest women's basketball conferences.

Individual teams also bear out this contrast.  Of the 343 teams in Division I, nine of the 11 Atlantic Sun teams rank in the bottom half (173rd or lower) of Division I in Sagarin rating, and one of the outlying two, East Tennessee State, is very close to the middle in 164th.  Meanwhile, only five of the Sun Belt's 12 teams rank in the bottom half, while two of their teams rank in the top 100: Middle Tennessee at 54th and Ark-Little Rock in 82nd.

Many may look at two small women's basketball conference in NCAA Division I and not see much of a difference.  But a closer look shows that the Sun Belt is in fact a superior conference to the Atlantic Sun.

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