Can Shane Carwin win the UFC heavyweight title from Brock Lesnar?

Yes

1 of 4

by Mepersoner

Write now Print Invite a writer™ Add to Favorites RSS Feed Contact this writer

Shane Carwin vs. Brock Lesnar - this fight is tearing up the internet forums right now, with endless debates on who will take it. The truth is, either fighter could take this fight, and even though we're discussing if Carwin CAN take this fight, I think a better question is if he WILL take this fight. Of course a huge, skilled, well trained fighter fighting out of one of the best camps in the world (Greg Jackson's) can take this fight. The man has shown to have tremendous knockout power and even if he is over-matched in some areas, there's always that "puncher's chance." That said, a comparison of the fighters is necessary to see how they stack up, and from that it will determined who will win this.

First, the champion:

Brock Lesnar

Record: 4 Wins, 1 loss.

2 wins via (T)KO, 1 via decision, and 1 via submission (from strikes).

1 loss via submission, from a knee-bar.

Last Weigh-in: 265 pounds (likely weighs more come fight time)

Height: 6'3"

Reach: 85 inches

Martial Arts experience: 4 years of high school wrestling (no titles), 4 years of college wrestling (record: 106-5)

MMA training: Announced his intent to compete on April 28, 2006 in K-1 ring. At least 3.5 years.

Analysis of recent fights (last 2 years):

vs. Frank Mir (2/2/2008): Showed his solid wrestling, strength and control on the ground. Took Mir down and punished him with hammer fists. After repeated blows to the back of the head, the referee intervened to give Mir a break. Lesnar repeated the cycle, but made a mistake of giving Mir some room to move, and Mir knee-barred him.

vs. Heath Herring (8/9/2008): A relatively uneventful fight. Lesnar showed his power early on by landing a strike that sent Herring to the ground and had him somersault backwards. It is speculated that if Lesnar snapped his punches more, rather than push with them (mistake often made by newer fighters because it feels more powerful) he would've knocked him out rather than knocked him off balance. This fight was a wrestling clinic where Lesnar took Herring down and controlled him for the majority of the fight, showing off his incredible wrestling ability. He was criticized though for not looking to finish the fight more often.

vs. Randy Couture (11/15/2008): A fight for the heavyweight championship. The fight went back and forth with Lesnar landing good knees and elbows from the clinch and a couple of take downs, but was unable to hold Couture down. Couture was also able to land his own take down, but also unable to hold position. Finally, in an exchange Lesnar landed a hard punch that sent Couture to the canvas, where Lensar followed up with several blows on the ground - finally resulting in a referee intervention. This fight showed off Lesnar's tremendous power and reach, but showed his wrestling can be negated by another good wrestler and that his striking defense is still lacking.

vs. Frank Mir (7/11/2009): Lesnar defended his championship belt against Mir. In this fight Lesnar took Mir down, controlled him, and pounded him from half-guard. In both rounds he was able to completely negate Mir's half-guard game and land solid blows, until Mir was finally knocked out in the second round. On the feet, Mir got the better of Lesnar striking, but was unable to capitalize because of Lesnar's solid take-downs.

From this we can see that Lesnar has very strong takedowns (he has taken down every opponent he's fought) and control (he has controlled every opponent he's fought, except Randy Couture) as well as improved submission defense (Mir had one attempt from standing at a knee bar in the second fight, and Lesnar defended and stayed out of trouble from then on out). He has shown very good power in his hands (knocking down Herring, knocking out Couture and knocking out Mir) but in every fight where there has been a decent amount of stand-up, he's had very solid blows landed on him, showing a lack of defense.

Now, the challenger.

Shane Carwin

Record: 11 wins, 0 losses.

6 wins via (T)KO, 5 via submission (1 from strikes).

Last Weigh-In: 259.5 pounds.

Height: 6'1.3"

Reach: 78" - 80" (appears that there is some controversy around this).

Martial Arts experience: 4 years college wrestling experience (placing early on, probably prior experience), taught 4 years of wrestling after that, and has fought in MMA since 2005, so more than 4 years of training in MMA.

Analysis of recent fights (last 2 years):

vs. Sherman Pendergarst - Carwin clinched with Pendergarst, took him down, landed in half-guard, and pounded away until the referee stopped it quickly in the first round. This fight showed his solid wrestling against a less than spectacular opponent.

vs. Christian Wellisch - The two fighters came out and Carwin stalked Wellisch around the cage. Both fighters were throwing without anything meaningful landing. Carwin landed the first meaningful punch of the fight, a right cross, and knocked Wellisch out. This fight showed Carwin having decent head movement and obvious power in his hands.

vs. Neil Wain - Carwin came out and clinched while Wain attempted to strike from within the clinch, landing nothing significant. Carwin backed off a little, and then lands a perfectly timed takedown, passes Wain's guard, and finally mounts Wain and pounds away until he gets the stoppage. In this fight Carwin continued to show off his great take downs and also showed his solid jiu-jitsu with a good guard pass to cross-side, and then a move to mount. Rogan commented he could feel the punches from mount vibrating the announcer table.

vs. Gabriel Gonzaga - Carwin's first taste of top competition. Gonzaga is a former heavyweight contender with world class jiu-jitsu and tremendous striking power. Carwin came out and in the first real exchange was caught by an overhand right, which was followed up by two more crosses from Gonzaga, who then took the opportunity to grab a single leg on Carwin. Carwin defended decently, but was rocked and Gonzaga had good control of the leg. Gonzaga took Carwin down to half-guard, then quickly passed to mount. Carwin quickly worked back to guard and scooted until his back was against the fence, which he used to crawl his back up, back to his feet. He then landed his own punch, and put Gonzaga down. Although Carwin lost most of this fight, he did shows flashes of how good he is. He showed a solid chin as Gonzaga landed three very hard shots consecutively, and solid jiu-jitsu as he was able to get back to guard and use it to get to his feet after a world class jiu-jitsu artist mounted him. He also again showed his major knockout power as all it took was one punch.

Knowing all this, looking through recent fights of both fighters, it appears that Carwin has showed to be more well rounded. Brock SHOULD have an advantage in wrestling, but as we saw against Couture, his wrestling is not so extremely dominating that another solid wrestler can't MOSTLY nullify it. Also, once on the ground Carwin has never been finished, while Lesnar does have that lone submission loss. On the feet Brock has a reach advantage and obviously hits very hard himself, but Carwin is the more accomplished power puncher, having finished every opponent and often with strikes. The major advantage maybe Carwin's chin. Lesnar has appeared hurt against both Couture and Mir when being hit, neither who are men known for their strong striking. Carwin appeared hurt after taking three very hard punches from Gonzaga, but was still standing and quickly came back for the win. Prediction for this fight: a back and forth battle both on the feet on the ground, with Lesnar getting the upper-hand in wrestling and Carwin on the feet. It won't be long until Lesnar's solid chin gives out before Carwin's iron chin though, and Carwin takes another fight by knockout.

Learn more about this author, Mepersoner.
Click here to send this author comments or questions.