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Is the UK's summer weather getting worse?
Results so far:
| Yes | 60% | 187 votes | Total: 314 votes | |
| No | 40% | 127 votes |
Yes
by The Green Fairy
Created on: July 29, 2009 Last Updated: August 01, 2009
In April 2009 the UK Meteorological Office predicted what they called a 'barbeque summer' for the UK. After the disappointments of 2007 and 2008, the British public were promised a scorcher. For a nation that loves its holidays the prospect of a good domestic summer was a relief, coming at a time when financial pressures were forcing people to cut their holiday budgets.
The Meteorological Office breaks the year into the seasons based on months. For them the summer is June, July and August. The weather in June, as promised, was hot. Temperatures soared into the high twenties centigrade and the government issued heat wave warnings. The summer of sunshine had arrived, or so it appeared.
But July told another story. It rained on St. Swithun's Day, July 15th, and superstition promised a further 40 days for rain. At the time of writing this article, late July, it appears that the St. Swithun's curse, if you can call it that, is being fulfilled. It has rained virtually every day since. The Meteorological Office has now offered a revised summer forecast and admits that the unsettled weather patterns will continue into August.
The pattern of 2009 is following that of 2007 and 2008. Good weather in the late spring or early summer is replaced by a July and August of heavy showers. Some are so intense and persistent as to cause localised flooding. Sunshine might be glimpsed between the showers, but on some days a leaden grey sky stretches across some or all of the nation from dawn till dusk.
But is the weather actually getting worse? Statistics indicate that average temperatures are climbing over time, following the pattern of global warming that we hear so much about. This raises the questions of how we measure the changes in the weather patterns. What does it actually mean to say the weather is 'getting worse'?
An opinion about whether something is better or worse than it used to be is, ultimately, just an opinion. It's subjective, and might not be backed up by statistics and analysis. My perspective on the British summers is that they are getting worse because memory and experience tell me that.
Most of us have a rosy coloured view of the summers of our youth - wall to wall sunshine and freedom to roam the country lanes in safety. But I can also remember washed out summer holidays in the Lake District and other places.
Despite these memories I'm convinced that the summers are getting worse, because they are developing a consistent pattern. Good weather in May-June, followed by a constant run of heavy showers in July and August. If there's a bright point it's that the weather at the end of summer seems to improve again.
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No
by Alexander Darracott
Created on: November 07, 2009 Last Updated: November 08, 2009
From observation it can be safely assumed that British summers are getting wetter but conversely the British winters are getting slightly warmer. Only now at the beginning of November is Britain beginning to feel the first bite of winter, which used to happen around the end of September. The pattern over the past couple of years indeed have been a very wet but mild July and August, but very warm and dry periods either side of the two months.
Met Office statistics show that whilst the summer of 2009 was predicted to have been a fantastic summer with soaring temperatures, rainfall during that period between the 1st of June to August the 26th was one of the wettest on record. 317.7 mm of rainfall was recorded during that period, which is 40% up on normal averages; a year before in 2007, 357.1mm of rain fell, which is just under the record rainfall of 1956 at 358.4mm.
So the summertime, according to Met Office statistics, is a picture of gloom with more rainfall and fewer sunlight hours than ever before. The Met Office, according to a Telegraph article written back in 2007, described it as a blip, but a Global Warming skeptic by the name of Piers Corbyn suggested back then that we are entering a four year La Nina weather system, very similar to the very turbulent summer pattern of 1984 to 1987.
La Nina significantly reduces the temperature of the central and eastern Pacific, which in turn affects the rest of the world's weather in a huge variety of ways. The effects are not fully understood and further research and investigation into how it affects the world's weather patterns need to be carried out. The primary area where La Nina affects the most is the area surrounding the equator line, but Dr. Mark Saunders believe that the effects of La Nina and El Nino can be felt in the UK. For example, there is evidence to suggest that the extremely poor weather experienced in 1998 coincided with the occurrence of strong El Nino activity. The terrible weather activity of 2007 in the UK and elsewhere in Europe has also been blamed on La Nina.
Coming from another direction, the Church of England who, as reported in the Times newspaper, suggested that the turbulent events were as a result of "The West's decision to ignore the Bible", claiming that it is further evidence of climate change, but yet La Nina cools the world's temperatures and not increases it. But then, who ever said that climate change refers to an increase in temperatures?
There are several sides to this story and the answer to the question of whether or not UK summer weather is getting worse is subject to debate. One side of the story is that Met Office statistics suggest that over the past few years British Summers have been much wetter, so based on this evidence the answer could be yes. On the other hand, La Nina has been blamed for the current mishaps in the British summer weather, which suggests that once the La Nina cycle has ended, the weather will start to improve so the answer could be no. On another hand, the Church of England claims that there were warnings and indications in the Bible and the West chooses to ignore them.
Whichever case is true, the only way to find out for sure if British summer weather is getting worse is to carry out a comprehensive study on the statistics from the Met Office to try to establish more correlations between strong La Nina behaviour and periods of poor British summer weather. Then, carry out an investigation over the next few years to determine whether or not the British Summer weather is getting worse. It's only with identification of such correlations and a long-term investigation will the question be able to be fully answered. But for now, immediate evidence suggests that the weather will improve, hence my answer to the question is no, but we will have to wait and see for sure!
References:
Nasa's detailed look at La Nina
Times Article: The future is wet. Summer was in April
Telegraph Article: What has happened to the British summer?
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