If the Big Three fail, will America stop producing cars?

No

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by Patrick Sills

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With the current state of our economy being in the worst shape its been in since the 1930's, it has been suggested that America's "Big Three" automakers are walking on figurative eggshells; destined to roll over and die. Should this occur, this poses a question: Will America stop producing cars?

First of all, it becomes quite incredible to believe that these corporate giants are said to be on the verge of collapse. General Motors, Ford Motor Company, and Chrysler have been around for a long, long time. The automakers have survived the Great Depression, the Second World War (when all U.S. production ceased from 1942-1945), and numerous recessions. It is the opinion of this author that we will instead see leaner, trimmed-down versions of these manufacturers. It is however possible that Chrysler will go the way of the Dodo Bird. Analysts predict that unless another auto company acquires Chrysler by 2010, the company will indeed go belly-up. As for the "Big Two" that would remain if this happens, we would simply see fewer models and significantly reduced dealership networks.

But let's get back to the question posed in my opening paragraph and assume I'm wrong. As we look into the crystal ball, all three U.S. automakers have called it quits. Would America then stop producing cars? No, it would not. Many Japanese automakers such as Honda, Toyota, Nissan, and Mazda have plants right here in the U.S.A. Volkswagen, the world's third-largest automotive company, will begin production of American-specific models at a plant in Tennessee by 2012. Mercedes-Benz builds SUV's in Alabama. There is no question that the number of employees that currently work on automotive assembly lines would be reduced. And I'll let you in on something: That's going to happen either way you look at it, but production of cars in this country would not cease altogether. In fact, the Japanese equivalents to our "Big Three;" Toyota, Honda, and Nissan, would probably take up a large portion of the void left by the extinct GM, Ford, and Chrysler. Face it: People will still need cars to replace their old, worn-out American-made models, and if they carry a Japanese or European badge, then so be it. To put it another way, I don't think horses and buggies will make a comeback anytime soon.

Another interesting thing could happen as well. We could witness a return to visionary individuals like Preston Tucker. Although smaller, a new crop of independent American auto companies could rise from the ashes of the former Big Three. In the early days of the automobile, there were literally hundreds of such car makes right here in America. Eventually, the Big Three swallowed them up because they could no longer compete. Remember Packards, Cords, Franklins, Stanleys, and Mercers, to name a few?

America's Big Three got themselves into their current predicament by utilizing overpaid union workers more interested in the arrival of the weekend than in producing quality products. As a result, American cars have become for the most part inferior to their Japanese and European counterparts. In turn, import sales are down because those owners who have come upon tough times know that the cars last longer and hence don't need replacement as often. There are far too many redundancies; or clones, within U.S. model lineups. Had these virtual siblings been trimmed a decade ago, American automakers would likely not find themselves in the current mess they have created.

Whether or not the U.S. auto industry can once again dig their way out of the hole remains to be seen. As I said, I believe it can, but they must come to the realization that overindulgence in anything can be fatal. They must take that first step. How?

By trimming the fat.

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