Do sanctions deter the actions of rogue nations?

No

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by Michael Gilbert

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Sanctions do not deter rogue nations. This is clearly demonstrated by the actions of North Korea, Iran, until recently Libya, Syria, and for 50+ years, Cuba. Whenever sanctions are imposed, either unilaterally (say by the United States) or multilaterally (say by the United Nations), there is always a "fellow traveler" nation willing to prop up the rogue nation in whatever deficiency it experiences by the sanctioning nation(s).

Take for example the Food-for-Oil "joke" that was in place for the last 12 years of Saddam Hussein's rule in Iraq. Not only did the French, as a nation, gain billions of dollars by circumventing the spirit and intent of the program, but even U.N. Secretary General Koffi Annon financially benefited too. Further, France ignored, or did not support, U.N. and U.S. sanctions when Operation Iraqi Freedom began. Technology sanctions are evaded by sympathetic nations (North Korea selling weapons technology for SCUD missiles, for example, to Iran and Iraq in clear violation of U.N. mandates. Sanctions against Libya did not really work; it was not until Libya wanted back into the international community and did not want to be any part of an "axis of evil" that its behavior changed.

Perhaps the biggest failure of all is the sanctions against the rogue island nation of Cuba. Since Fidel Castro came to power in 1959, he and his nation have effectively thumbed their noses at the U.S. Not only did the former Soviet Union have a warm water port for 30 years, +/-, but it and Cuba exported war and revolution not only in Central and South America, but Africa, notably Angola, as well. To compound matters, Cuba gained "hard currency" (dollars, Euros, etc.) through unabated tourism to the country by Canadians, Europeans, and Asians. The Soviet military provided weapons technology, food products and oil in exchange for its presence on the island, but in this hemisphere as well (in clear violation of the Monroe Doctrine and the Roosevelt Corollary). Today, Cuba may be a stuck in a "time warp" with old cars, appliances, and so forth, but the intended goal of removing Castro from power and ridding the Caribbean of communism has failed.

Sanctions cannot and will not work unless there is a concerted effort to enforce them, even to the point of air and naval blockades. But, fear of sparking a war (especially in this tranquil world we live in) often prevents that concerted effort. Further, if one nation will be hurt by sanctions imposed by another, the odds of success are marginal. That could, however unlikely, set off a domino-effect of sanctions against nations refusing to honor sanctions. Then who is left as the rogue nation? Probably the one pronouncing sanctions on every nation that does not cooperate.

Short answer - sanctions against rogue nations will not work as long as greed exists in this international community we all share. As long as one nation (economy) sees a way to bolster itself, sanctions are not worth the resolution paper they are written on.

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