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Has the ethanol industry peaked?

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Yes
63% 35 votes Total: 56 votes
No
37% 21 votes

Yes

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No

by Daniel J. Gansle

Created on: September 10, 2008

Critics of President George W. Bush have often chastised the president for simply promoting more oil drilling as the administration's overall energy policy. But to be fair, Mr. Bush's energy policy also includes key measures to increase production of alternative fuels. The question then becomes, which alternative fuels are viable, and which ones are untenable in the long run.

On December 19, 2007, the president signed into law the Energy Independence and Security Act which, among other initiatives, sets forth an eightfold increase in biofuel energy production from 4.7 billion gallons in 2007 to 36 billion gallons by 2022. An important (yet controversial) source of renewable energy, ethanol is recognized for its ability to reduce reliance on volatile sources of foreign oil. However, the consequences of ethanol production vis-a-vis global warming and rising food prices may outstrip its capacity to act as a viable long-term alternative to finite fossil fuels.

The American Coalition for Ethanol cites numerous advantages to the popular renewable including job creation; local, state, and national economic stimulus; bolstering of the nation's agricultural industry and rural communities; energy security and independence; and a healthier environment.(1) Yet according to the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center, the production of ethanol is powered by the burning of natural gas, coal, or electricity which produces greenhouse gases.(2) Fertilizers, farm equipment, and transportation are also important considerations when calculating the total energy input of ethanol production.

Furthermo re, in February 2008, two studies published in the prestigious journal Science critiqued ethanol as a viable long-term replacement for oil. The studies concluded that the sum total carbon dioxide emissions from ethanol production are equal to or greater than traditional fossil fuel energy production, thus leading to increased global warming, which in turn leads to increased drought and desertification in agricultural areas.(3)

The shrinking of agricultural land due to global warming is exacerbated by forest areas (including the Amazon) being cleared for the planting of crops specifically geared toward the production of ethanol rather than food. The unfortunate consequence is skyrocketing food prices in the face of decreasing supply, and a global human rights crisis as underdeveloped nations experience growing hunger and poverty.

Yet despite all the negatives of ethanol and the possibility of a new "corn bubble" due to the rising price of grains, it is unlikely that ethanol production has peaked. Furthermore, because the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 calls for an eight-fold increase in ethanol production by 2022, ethanol production will only rise in the years to come.



Source Notes:
1) http://www.ethanol.o rg/index.php?id=34&p arentid=8
2) http://www.eere.ener gy.gov/afdc/ethanol/ production_starch_su gar.html
3) See also, "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land Use Change," Science Online, February 7. 2008. http://www.sciencema g.org/cgi/content/ab stract/11518 61v1?sa_campaign=Ema il/pap/7-February-20 08/10.1126/s cience.1151861

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