No

by Erik Setser

Created on: April 01, 2009

Given the setting for this debate, it's easy to suppose that the entirety of a reader base would remain if a newspaper went fully digital. You may even be reading this on a laptop out in the boondocks, making the scenario seem even more probable. However, if newspapers were to go paperless - aside from the fact that they'd have to change their name, lest they sound absurd - they would lose a significant number of readers.

According to ruralhome.com, 22% of American homes are in rural areas. That's roughly 23 million families Granted, a portion of these are commercial farms, but perhaps the largest percentage of them are fixed income families, namely the retired and/or disabled. These, despite their financial disposition, are many a newspaper's most loyal customers.

The fact is, as widely available as computers are, many folks are still without. Furthermore, nothing more than a weak, nigh nonexistent dial-up connection is available in the far outskirts of the countryside. That is, short of using a mobile broadband card, but such luxuries often remain out of reach.

These are the people buying the paper from the corner market every day and taking it home to read on their porch. Most of us who still read the paper fall into two categories. Either we subscribe, having it delivered for a discount from the cover price. Or, and I believe more of us are in this second category, we just snag one out of the break room at work. Some papers offer an additional discount for commercial bulk subscriptions. What this means is that, on a per capita basis, the people buying the paper every day at news stand price are the newspapers' most lucrative source of income.

So, while printed newspapers are diminishing in necessity, we are far more than 5 years from a justified fully digital conversion. Production should decrease, but the rates should be determined by trends in the reader base, rather than by mass legislation. In other words, survey the reader base to find what percentage has internet access and decrease production by that much. Do not, however, take a national or even state wide average, as this would lead to overproduction and underproduction in well-to-do and underdeveloped regions, respectively. Rather, reduce production of each paper according to its own reader base.

Besides, these days there's a lot of talk about creating and saving jobs. Well, a digital conversion would destroy many jobs when the presses shut down. Granted, more office jobs would be created to replace a large number of these, but we can't forget about those not cut out for white collar work. The folks who work well in a factory but not in an office, with heavy machinery but not with a computer, would be able to keep their jobs and perhaps become more valued in the event of a partial digital conversion. In the event of a full conversion, however, they would lose their jobs and millions of families would be without their daily print news.

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