No

by Anthony Shaw

Created on: February 27, 2010   Last Updated: March 02, 2010

The title of this piece is interesting. "Natalee Holloway murder" .... Go no further. There is the perception among a large percentage of the people interested in this case that the girl was indeed "murdered". She has disappeared and is now presumed to be dead. She had been seen in the company of a number of young men in Aruba. 

Their behaviour was noticeably suspicious, at least if media reports are to be believed. The Aruba police conducted inquiries, albeit very inefficiently, and released the individuals concerned for lack of evidence.

One of these suspects, a young Dutchman called Joran van der Sloot (about whom I will say more later) keeps turning up like the proverbial bad penny, particularly on Dutch television and in Dutch newspapers.

The important point to make at this point, though, is that there is no concrete evidence that the girl was indeed murdered. Rumours, street legends and speculation abound about what happened to her.

Evidence, though, a precious commodity that would be needed to complete a successful prosecution in a court of law, simply does not exist.

The possibility exists that she died accidentally. At the moment, the possibility of her wandering in a drunken state into the sea and drowning cannot be ruled out. It would seem unlikely, in that no evidence of the body was found when the sea was scanned in the neighbouring area following her disappearance, even if the general perception is that this search was not as thorough as it might have been. 

Given the ecological cycle, and the way that creatures of the sea use remains as part of the food chain, it is unlikely after all this time that even the most sophisticated search technology could find much now that would be of use.

There is also the explanation given in one of Joran ven der Sloot's "confessions". He and Natalee were making love on the beach, when she suddenly lost consciousness and died. He panicked and arranged with a local boat-owner for the body to be ditched in the sea.

This is highly irresponsible behaviour, which, if true, constitutes a criminal offense. He could be prosecuted for disposing of a dead body without reporting it. This does not, though, constitute a case for murder. The death in this instance would again fall under the category "accidental".

Then, if you follow this case on YouTube, you can find a number of interesting alternatives that definitely stretch the imagination and seem highly improbable, but have also not been disproved.

These include the girl returning to the United States in a private plane the day before she "disappeared", that she has been seen buying goods from a supermarket, that she was picked up and flown to South America, and sold by white slavers. 

Most of these claims cannot be taken seriously, but at the same time need investigating thoroughly. The case of Jaycee Dugard indicates that an individual can vanish for a very long time, and then turn up out of nowhere.

Which leaves us with Joran van der Sloot. This case would probably, long ago, have been filed among those that will never be resolved if it were not for this young man of dubious reputation.

Every so often he has the habit of turning up in some media report, often following attempts on his own part to put himself back in the public gaze. Undoubtedly he seems to enjoy the notoriety that this story has generated.

The problem is that he has developed such a tendency to provide some information which sounds relevant, and then to withdraw it almost as quickly as he produces it.

Reliability and consistency are definitely not his forte. Many of the "confessions" are produced when he is under the influence of marijuana, and withdrawn when the effects have worn off. He may well know the truth of exactly what happened.

The trouble is that nobody can ever be sure when he is telling the truth, when he is fantasising, and when he is simply trying to get the media to take notice of him so that he can enjoy a few more days in the limelight.

So will the Aruba police ever resolve the issue? Or will American or Dutch investigators ever reach a satisfactory conclusion as to what happened? Personally I doubt it.

Finding irrefutable proof after all this time that the girl was murdered is now next to impossible. Getting a full, reliable, confession from any suspect now would also be very difficult. 

Rumours will feed off this case for a very long time yet, but the actual facts as to what actually happened will, in all probability, remain a mystery.  

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