Will Kosovo inspire other independence movements worldwide?

No

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by Ted Onulak

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The answer to this question should be addressed in a larger geopolitical context. One of the greatest catalysts of the independence movements of small ethnic states in Europe was the dissolution of the USSR. It is not surprising that Russia has voiced the strongest disapproval of Kosovar independence, since it faces similar movements within its borders.

Almost immediately after the weakening of the bonds that turned the network of Soviet Socialist Republics into a looser Federal configuration, smaller ethnic independence movements erupted within the various republics, such as, Moldova/TransDnester , Georgia/Northern Ossetia and Chechnya/Russian Federated Republic, to name a few.

It is important to note that these units were self-defined by their ethnicity. Religious difference may have played some minimal role, but only in the sense of more sharply defining the groups within the territory.

In this light, one of the leading factors promoting these independence movements is the conflict between diverse ethnic groups within a weak federalist political system in competition for state resources and the ascendancy of one ethnic group over another. This can be argued as the prime cause of the internecine violence, which erupted after the breakup of Yugoslavia.

Another factor is a heightened awareness of the ethnic group as distinct and at odds with surrounding competing ethnic powers.

Let us look at the situation in present day Iraq. There are three strong competing ethnic groups; Sunni Arabs, Persian Shia and Kurds. Though the difference between Shia and Sunni may be argued as being primarily religious, the distinction functions more like an ethnicity. Though the differences between Shia and Sunni are fairly small in a theological sense, religion has not been a uniting factor. Nor has the appeal of a Greater Islam been an incentive to cast aside these differences.

This is evidenced by the growing rejection of the pan-Islamic message of al-Qaida by tribal leaders in Southern Iraq in favor of local tribal interest. Though all groups are represented in the current Iraqi government, this weak Federalist model will be challenged to hold the country together, and may allow the groups to further arm and consolidate local power.

Only the powerful presence of the US military may be keeping the country from disintegrating into a bloodbath. Be assured that the regional actors realize that the US is fighting with both hands tied behind its back and could unleash more devastation on the country, if the situation changed. One could imagine that a drastically reduced token US force subjected to an attack would elicit devastating retaliation regardless of the composition of the next US administration.

This brings into consideration a third factor, the influence of a powerful regional actor or actors, either as actively encouraging independence movements or being perceived as a threat to autonomy or future independence.

Many examples of this kind can be observed; the support of Russia for a Greater Serbia, a Taliban regime in Afghanistan friendly to Chechnya, a long-isolated Iran seeking to exert influence among Iraq's Shia population, Saudi Arabia's wealth and influence with the United States, the threat of Turkey to Kurdish reunification and independence and the interests of other concerned powers over the rich oil resources in Iraq.

Though events in Kosovo such as the intervention of the UN and European Union, US air strikes against Serbian forces and the capture and war crimes tribunal of Slobodan Milosovic have certainly fanned the hopes of the worldwide independence movement for small ethnic groups, it is not a defining factor in this movement.

This is the reason why it bears watching if multi-national institutions will be more of a factor in the preservation of human rights and protection against genocide, or will the costs of the Iraq intervention stimulate isolationism among the EU, US, China and Russia. This is why the present conflict in Iraq will be more of a factor than Kosovo independence in defining future struggles and the roles that others in the international community may play.

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