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Bhutto's assassination: Is Al Qaeda or Musharraf the more likely suspect?

Results so far:

Musharraf
60% 28 votes Total: 47 votes
Al Qaeda
40% 19 votes
Musharraf

Pervez Musharraf is the likely suspect in Benazir Bhutto's assassination. The contradictory messages which have been issued by his government regarding the nature of her death and the destruction of evidence at the scene make him and his government look very suspicious. Also, if Al-qaeda had carried out the attack, the terrorist organization would have probably been very quick to claim responsibility. However, to this day it hasn't claimed responsibility.

The government of Pervez Musharraf had much to gain from the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. At one time, it appeared that the two might work together for the good of Pakistan, but in the weeks prior to her assassination, tension between the two had grown noticeably. In the momemts after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, Pervez Musharraf didn't look the least bit upset and even went so far as to blame her for the assassination.

Many members of Pakistan's military as well as the ISI (Inter-services Intelligence) couldn't stand Benazir Bhutto and were upset that she'd returned to Pakistan. In fact, Benazir Bhutto suspected that some of them were behind the assassination attempt in October. Many in the military and ISI viewed her as a nominal Muslim who was too closely allied with the USA and had no desire to see her return to power. As for Pervez Musharraf, he had the support of the USA in fighting terrorism but the general perception was that he hadn't done enough with the financial aid given to him. He had a delicate balancing act and tried to appease both the west and the fundamentalist elements of Pakistan's society.

Benazir Bhutto, on the other hand, had many supporters in the west and was seen as a leader who would devote her resources to striking out against Al-qaeda and the fundamentalist groups operating within Pakistan. To Taliban sympathizers and fundamentalist Muslim's within Pakistan's military and ISI, this was clearly unacceptable.

Pervez Musharraf knew that Benazir Bhutto was likely to win the election originally scheduled to take place on January 18. She had attracted many supporters to her rallies and was the candidate of the west. He knew that if she won, his dictactorial powers would be in great jeopardy. Also, he probably feared that she would then control the massive aid given by the US and not he. This must have been a great concern for the former general. It is now widely suspected that much of the money which he was sent was used not for fighting al-Qaeda but rather for strengthening Pakistan's military.

With her charisma and fame, Benazir Bhutto was a popular leader of her PPP, Pakistan People's Party. Pervez Musharraf knew that her death would be a crucial blow to her party which didn't have an obvious number two to replace her. In other words, her assassination was a crucial blow for the PPP and a big boost to the other parties which will contest Pakistan's election, including the ruling party which Pervez Musharraf supports.

Benazir Bhutto had become too popular and too powerful for the ISI, the military and the government of Pervez Musharraf. She was strongly supported by the US and many countries in the west. If she had come to power as was increasingly likely, efforts to eliminate terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda would have intensified. The relationship between Benazir Bhutto and Pervez Musharraf would have likely grown worse despite hopes in the west that the two would cooperate closely. The destruction of evidence at the scene of Benazir Bhutto's assassination and the lack of sympathy expressed by Pervez Musharraf and his government is highly suspicious. If Al-qaeda had been responsible for the death of Benazir Bhutto, conventional wisdom suggests that it would have taken immediate responsibility. Since it didn't, it seems that Pervez Musharraf is the likely suspect.

Learn more about this author, Les Zsoldos.
Contact this writer Click here to send this author comments or questions.

Al Qaeda

With hindsight, Benazzir Bhutto's death was an accident waiting to happen. The moment she decided to leave Britain to return to her beloved Pakistan, the finger was placed on the trigger. There was an early warning when a bomb went off soon after she touched down in her homeland. In the heat of election fever, Bhutto and her supporters did everything they could to point the finger of blame at Musharraf. It was certainly a good campaigning point - do you want a murderous President, or would you prefer a peace loving one?

Benazzir Bhutto was quite a controversial figure. She and her husband were booted out of Pakistan - or left to avoid a possible death sentence - for corruption. There is substantial evidence that they pilfered millions of dollars from Pakistan to ensure they lived in wealth. Her father and brothers had bloody deaths, such is the state of politics in the country.

She seemed to embrace what she wanted from the west, but at the same time was highly critical of western policies when it suited her political ambitions back home. It was almost a love-hate relationship, but she was always sure to look after her own interests first.

When considering who really killed her, it is important to look at what she offered Pakistan if she had been elected President for a second time. She was outspoken against Al Qa'eda and the Muslim fundamentalists and claimed to support the American War on Terror. There was talk that she would open up Pakistan's borders to allow American agents to work inside the country. That would have been a huge blow to Al Qa'eda because at present, terrorists can nip across the border with Afghanistan with impunity.

But she was also a real threat to Musharraf's hold on power. Musharraf has been portrayed as a friend of the West. He has sold his soul to the Americans by offering some suport against Al Qa'eda, in return for millions of dollars of aid. But he has been very careful as he realizes that there is a wave of support for anti-Western attacks among his people. Bhutto went out on a limb and threatened to help tackle the Muslim fundamentalist problem once and for all. Internally, she had real prospects of winning the election. She was welcomed back with open arms by huge crowds.

So, who was it? Al Qa'eda of Musharraf? On balance, I would have to say I believe it was Al Qa'eda. Musharraf stands to lose an awful lot if he is found to have been responsible. The West would remove its support for a pretty loathsome figure - their friendship is just one of convenience anyway. Musharraf has already shown he is capable of rigging elections, so why would he need to kill an opponent? I should imagine there must have been a real fear among the Al Qa'eda leadership that Bhutto's election would have enable the West to close in the net still further. Pakistan would no longer have been such a green light hiding ground for its terror plans.

Learn more about this author, Phil Hill.
Contact this writer Click here to send this author comments or questions.

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