Can San Diego Chargers beat the Indianapolis Colts without Peyton Manning interceptions?

Yes

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by David Wysocki

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To say the San Diego Chargers don't have a chance to upset in Indianapolis this weekend is very foolish. To guarantee a Charger victory over the Indianapolis Colts would be equally foolish.

The Colts (13-3) at full strength look like one of if not the best team in football. Frankly I may take my chances with the Colts in a Colts-New England Patriots match-up (just my opinion, most will disagree probably). With that said, however, this is the NFL and the Chargers are a very strong football team that is red hot winning eleven of its last thirteen games.

In week nine, the Chargers hosted the powerful Colts and, like in 2006, the Chargers were able to pull off an upset versus some impressive odds. Many will point the finger at the regular season match-up these two clubs had and put the sole blame for the Colts' loss on a "bad day" from All-World quarterback Peyton Manning or the injuries of wide receivers Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez, and tight end Dallas Clark. Granted, having these three in the lineup would have certainly helped Manning and Manning certainly did have a horrible game throwing a career high six interceptions, but luck isn't good policy when analyzing games.

Let's take a look at what the Chargers were missing in that week nine match-up:

Starting defensive tackle Luis Castillo (arguably most important piece of a normally dominant defensive front in the 3-4 defensive scheme), pro-bowl center Nick Nardwick (his injury was maybe the biggest reason for Chargers offensive inconsistencies in the beginning of the season), number one cornerback Quentin Jammer, and wide receiver Eric Parker all missed the game as well. The Chargers proved in this game that they clearly had the most depth between the two clubs. Backup cornerback Antonio Cromartie stepped in and picked off Manning three different times in the ball game and proved it wasn't a fluke by leading the NFL in 2007 with ten and actually cracking the pro-bowl roster for the AFC.

Many have blamed the Manning interceptions as an enigma that will never happen again, but in 2006 the Chargers picked off Manning twice and the troubles Manning seems to have against the Chargers is not due to injuries of his own players but less time to throw the football. The Chargers, with Castillo, Jammer, Jamal Williams, and the rest of their defensive unit healthy should be able to put just as much if not more pressure on Manning in this game. I fully expect Manning to make the adjustments and play just fine, but I wouldn't be surprised if he has another shaky showing because the Chargers are a much better defensive football now just as the Indianapolis Colts offense will be better with a Harrison and Gonzalez.

Adam Vinatieri also missed two, what would seem easy, field goals in this game that would have seemingly given the Colts the victory. The fact of the matter is that Vinatieri is not the automatic kicker he once was. Vinatieri hit only 79% of his field goals in 2007 and he even missed two extra points. Vinatieri is simply inconsistent in his 2007 form. This is what you get.

The Chargers led the league in forced turnovers in 2007 and to discount this factor or to assume the Chargers earlier 23-21 victory in San Diego this year was not consistent with the realities of these two clubs seems a stretch. The Chargers are sending eight guys to the Pro-Bowl this season and despite over coming complete coaching overhauls and virtually learning new schemes on offense and defense (even Norv Turner tweaked the offense) the inconsistent and incohesive Chargers of the first half of the season have given way to much more viscous and fluid squad that has won seven straight and more reveal the 2006 14-2 team.

Philip Rivers is playing well, Ladanian Tomlinson is still the best back in football and arguably one of the best three ever, and the addition of receiver Chris Chambers will always make the Chargers players in any game no matter who they face. If Antonio Gates is able to lace them up, then they have an even better shot.

I fully expect the Colts to beat the Chargers this weekend but this game is by no means going to be an easy victory minus Manning's six interceptions. The Chargers can play with the best of them and they have beaten the Colts in two straight. The Colts defense is playing very well in 2007 and the offense should be solid as well. Just don't underestimate these Bolts. If linebackers Shawn Merriman and Shaun Phillips can put heavy pressure Manning consistently and Rivers can find Chambers and Vincent Jackson down-field occasionally, this game could honestly go either way.

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