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Will insurgency in Iraq ever end?

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Yes		41%	67 votes	Total: 164 votes
No		59%	97 votes	Total: 164 votes

Yes

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Will the insurgency in Iraq ever end? If the war is handled right, ABSOLUTELY! Insurgencies, being the primary form of armed conflict in the 21st century, are simply another form of warfare and, when handled correctly, can be defeated. In Iraq, the "surge" advocated by General Petraeus and the accompanying aggressive offensives in 2007-2008 have driven Al-Qaeda, sectarian violence, and terrorist networks from its primary strongholds. Their power, once seemingly invincible and unstoppable, is now manageable and insurgent elements in the country have been losing ground for quite some time now. If the United States and Iraq in general, and the US Army in particular, are serious about crushing the insurgency in that Middle Eastern country, pressure must be consistently applied to terrorists, combined with several other elements required to stabilize the country and suck support from destabilizing elements.

In late November 2006, Iraq was a country tearing itself apart. Sectarian attacks were rampant and Coalition forces were under heavy attack. According to the Institute for the Study of War, "Iraq was in flames. Insurgents and death squads were killing 3,000 civilians a month. Coalition forces were sustaining more than 1,200 attacks per week. Operation Together Forward II, the 2006 campaign to clear Baghdad's most violent neighborhoods and hold them with Iraqi Security Forces, had been suspended because violence elsewhere in the capital was rising steeply. AlQaedain Iraq (AQI) owned safe havens within and around Baghdad, throughoutAnbar, and inDiyala,Salah-ad-Di n, andNinewaprovinces. The Iraqi government was completely paralyzed. Iraq was in flames. Insurgents and death squads were killing 3,000 civilians a month. Coalition forces were sustaining more than 1,200 attacks per week. Operation Together Forward II, the 2006 campaign to clear Baghdad's most violent neighborhoods and hold them with Iraqi Security Forces, had been suspended because violence elsewhere in the capital was rising steeply. AlQaedain Iraq (AQI) owned safe havens within and around Baghdad, throughoutAnbar, and in Diyala, Salah-ad-Din, and Ninewa provinces. The Iraqi government was completely paralyzed".

It seemed, to many, the Iraq had indeed become another Vietnam for the US or. The situation, in some ways, was eerily reminiscent of the Soviet War in Afghanistan, where Red Army soldiers, numbering in the tens of thousands and boasting superior firepower, were unable to defeat the nation-wide mujahideen insurgency for almost ten years before pulling out in disgrace. In short, it seemed as though nothing would or could work, particularly in the unruly Al-Anbar province. Terrorist networks throughout the country were strongly entrenched.

More than a year later, the situation in Iraq had changed completely. DavidPetraeusand his subordinate, General Odierno, had turned the conflict on its head. In short, the United States and their Iraqi allies were making substantial progress in the conflict and on their way to winning the war. According to the same Institute, "When General Odierno relinquished command of MNC-I on February 14, 2008, the civil war was over. Civilian casualties were down 60 percent, as were weekly attacks. AQI had been driven from its safe havens in and around Baghdad and throughout Anbarand Diyalaand was attempting to reconstitute for a "last stand" in Mosul-with Coalition and Iraqi forces in pursuit. The Council of Representatives passed laws addressingde-Baathif ication, amnesty, provincial powers, and setting a date for provincial elections. The situation in Iraq had been utterly transformed."

Given the dire straits in which the coalition had found itself by the end of 2006, this kind of progress is remarkable given the size, strength, and violence of the insurgency. Furthermore, this kind of progress was remarkable for a country fighting against ANY kind ofsizable, determined insurgency. Remember that the Soviets fighting against the Afghan guerrillas in the 1980s' were NEVER able to make this kind of sustained progress, largely due to a rigid, inflexible, and unintelligent counter-insurgency strategy. Over thirty years ago, Americans were, for the same reasons, unable to gain supremacy over North Vietnam in the jungles of Southeast Asia.

The fact is that the insurgency in Iraq is dying. It is not dead, not at all. But it is in critical condition. The insurgents are still dangerous and capable of launching deadly attacks not only against coalition forces, but against innocent Iraqis as well. However, they are losing. This is the important point that critics of American involvement in Iraq consistently ignore. The insurgency will be defeated and, if we play our cards right, Iraq will become a modern, democratic Arab country whose government respect the rule of law and the human rights of its citizens.

Learn more about this author, Rory Walkinshaw.
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No

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by Melissa Langone

Everything evolves, people, animals, and even the art of war. There was once a time when an enemy could be identified by the color of his clothing. There was once a time when men would line up, row upon row, firing across an invisible dividing line until one side retreated or the other was left with the most men standing. Now, clothing and other physical attributes are of no help in identifying an enemy and threats are no longer confined by gender or age.

At one time, war was purely physical, involving the use of bayonets, cannons, guns, and all other weaponry designed to damage the body. Increasingly, psychological tactics have become ingrained in every aspect of war and focus upon damaging or changing the mind. By its very nature, terrorism involves psychology because it relies upon the production of anxiety in those who are being terrorized. It involves the infliction of fear by not knowing when, where, or why particular people or places will be targeted.

But, terrorists are also using a new weapon in their psychological warfare arsenal, children. Children in terrorist countries are being used to perpetuate a hatred for Americans. One method being used to disseminate this message to young people is the media. An example involves the use of a mouse-like character that speaks against Israel and the United States. In 2007, child-targeted propaganda involved a sing-a-long that encouraged a young girl to follow in the footsteps of her mother, a suicide bomber who killed soldiers. We can only imagine how many other examples are out there of which we have not yet become aware.

Whether it is intentional or not, social learning theory is being used to create future generations of terrorists. Based on this theory, behavior can be influenced by the reciprocal interaction between environmental, personal, and behavioral factors. This theory states that individuals can learn through the performance of their own actions, and by witnessing the actions of others. The core concepts of this theory include observational learning, reinforcement, behavioral capability, self-efficacy, and expectations (Stone, 1998).

The use of media primarily relies upon observational learning and reinforcement. Children can identify with the cartoon-like character and the young girl in the sing-a-long. By watching the behaviors and reactions of these media images, and their family members' reaction to them, the conduct is reinforced. While dying as a result of one's actions may seem like it would not reinforce a behavior, the reaction of family and community members viewing the individual as a hero or martyr can encourage this behavior.

The influence of social learning theory is even more evident in the community of insurgents. Behavioral capability and self-efficacy are achieved by recruiting young children and adolescents and training them in terrorist techniques. Expectations are an influence over behavior when people believe that community members will view their sacrifice in a positive manner. An individual who participates in a suicide bombing is being influenced by the environment and if this behavior is viewed positively by the community, the individual is influencing the environment through reciprocal determinism.

Changes in an individual's behavior result from interaction effects between the environment and the individual. This includes how the environment affects the individual as well as how the individual affects the environment. Social circumstances also have an influence upon moral and ethical judgments and how these judgments influence behavior (Bandura, 1977). Social learning theory states that an individual's social group is influential over the performance of unethical behaviors (Bandura, 1977).

By applying this methodology, targeting, capturing, and killing the insurgents of today may help the problem temporarily. However, entire generations of individuals with the same thought process are being created. It is becoming more and more evident that to truly win the "War on Terror," traditional warfare will be ineffective. Weaponry cannot combat the thoughts and beliefs that are being ingrained into future generations of terrorists.

Social learning theory can be used to understand and predict behavior, which may be useful in helping to identify strategies for behavior change. The same principles that have been used to reinforce negative views can be used to encourage positive views. Beneficial interactions between U.S. soldiers and the children in terrorist countries have the potential to counteract the effects of being taught to hate Americans. A re-education process for children involving changes in teachings and available media would be necessary to impart changes in ideology.

While the wounds may not be visible, the damage left in the wake of a psychological war can be significant and enduring. Combating the psychological aspects of a modern day war can prove to be immensely more difficult than the physical aspect of war. However, if the psychological aspects of the war are left unaddressed, this is a war that our children and our children's children will continue fighting.

Bandura, A. (1977). Social Learning Theory. New Jersey, NY: Prentice Hall.

Stone, D. (1998). Social Cognitive Theory. Retrieved April 23, 2007 from http://www.med.usf.e du/~kmbrown/Social_C ognitive_Theory_Over view.htm

Learn more about this author, Melissa Langone.
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