Can baseball's Yankees reclaim past MLB glories in 2008?

Yes

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by Patrick Thorman

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The history of the New York is automatically associated with winning championships and fielding outstanding players. In 2008, they again have an assortment of great players and a fairly good shot at winning their 27th World Series title. Like every other contender they have holes that need to be filled and concerns that need to be addressed. However, they have an offense that is second to none and an airtight combination at the back end of their bullpen. Will it be enough to overcome their shortage of starting pitching, middle relief and their issues with age and durability? That will not be known until October rolls around, but they have as good a shot as the other consensus contenders in 2008 if a few things break their way.

The main issue that New York will run into this season is a dearth of reliable starting pitching. Their rotation is led by the solid, if unspectacular, Chein-Ming Wang, who was their anchor last season when he won a team high 19 games by throwing 199 innings with an ERA of 3.70. In fact, over the past two seasons he has won the most games in the major leagues with 38. He has had some physical problems in the past but for the most part he is very reliable. They will need him to throw his usual innings total this season because the rest of the rotation contains considerable question marks, mainly due to age.

Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina, 36 and 40 years old respectively, will need to defy the ravages of time to throw a large innings load this season. Both have their own questions that they are dealing with heading into the season. Pettitte has already experienced some physical issues and needs to deal with the negative reaction to his HGH admission this past offseason. He was very strong for the Yankees last year and must remain the model of consistency that he has been throughout his career. Mussina faded badly last season down the stretch, causing many to wonder if he would ever be able to pitch effectively again. He has not been a power pitcher in recent seasons, instead relying on his many different pitches and a veteran's guile to keep hitters off balance. He does need a mid-80's fastball to keep a batter honest as he works to get outs with his offspeed stuff. Last season he lost a few miles per hour off his fastball and was knocked around with striking regularity during the season's second half. The Yanks will need both pitchers to approach 200 innings thrown because the other two members of the rotation will have strict innings pitched limitations due to their youth.

Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy are the future of the Yankees' rotation and will be monitored closely throughout the season. General manager Brian Cashman is a firm believer in incrementally increasing young pitchers' innings by about 30 from year to year. There is plenty of evidence that affirms this strategy and it is a wise one. However that will leave the Yankees looking to fill in the innings that will be left over, because Hughes threw just over 70 innings in the majors last season. He pitched in the minors while rehabbing a hamstring tear but that only brings his total to just over 100 innings. Even in the unlikely event that Cashman lets him throw around 40 more innings it will only bring the total up to around 140. This would leave them searching for someone else to eat up the excess innings that a typical third or fourth starter would generally toss in a full season. Hughes also has lost a few MPH off of his fastball in what is likely a mechanical problem that will need to be fixed. Overall he projects as a front of the rotation starting pitcher, but he is not quite there yet. Kennedy is in the same boat as far as eventually being shut down due to an innings pitched cap, though since he was not dealing with an injury last year his total was up around 165. He may be able to throw a full load, but it is unlikely since he will also be monitored closely and is less developed than Hughes. He may have to be taken out of the rotation at some point.

The big question in New York this season is where young fireballer Joba Chamberlain will be pitching from at the end of the season. He is currently in the bullpen as part of a lights-out late inning combo with future Hall of Fame closer Mariano Rivera. The situation is ideal in that when the Yanks get a late lead, they can pretty much put the W in the win column because those two do not blow games. It is especially valuable for a team who does not have many starters that go very deep in games. However, most scouts project Chamberlain to be an ace starting pitcher and the Yankees are anxious to see him in that role, especially when the playoffs roll around. He does have a four pitch repertoire that would suit a starting pitcher, but has primarily used his blazing fastball and devastating slider in his short stints out of the pen so far in his major league career. He has a plus curve and changeup that would keep most batters off balance when mixed in with his two power pitches, but would have to conserve energy a bit more when starting games. Would his dominance carry over from the pen, or would the Yankees be better served by leaving him in tandem with Rivera and riding that advantage that they have over other teams? That will be a key question this year and one that will go a long way in determining whether they wind up in the playoffs or not.

If those issues turn out positively, they are a good bet to be in the thick of things at the end of the season and heading into the playoffs. They will likely need to promote one or two of their strong minor league starting pitchers or trade for a veteran to eat up some innings, and hope that a few less recognizable names emerge in the bullpen to provide valuable middle relief help. Billy Traber and Ross Ohlendorf are promising arms that should surprise in that middle relief role when the erratic Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins inevitably flame out.

New York will have little problem scoring runs throughout the season, as they have what could easily be the best lineup in the majors. With speed at the top and bottom of the lineup, it will be one that can beat teams in many different ways and that will provide new manager Joe Girardi plenty of options. The heart of the order will employ plenty of thunder in Bobby Abreu, Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui and Jason Giambi. High on base percentage guys like Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano will set the table for the thumpers and will ensure many long summer afternoons for opposing pitchers in 2008. Giambi, Damon and Abreu all showed up much leaner and in better playing shape this spring and should avoid the early slumps that plagued them in 2007. Their defense has improved with the every day addition of the strong armed Melky Cabrera in center field, and with Matsui seeing more time at DH in favor of Damon in left field.

While age and injuries remain an issue with the lineup, they Yanks will have enough pop to outscore most teams as the season goes along. If they can fill in the innings that they will be short of in the rotation with even average performance, they should have enough to make the playoffs. While frontline starting pitching typically wins in October, the World Series winner is usually whoever happens to hottest at that point in the season. For that reason the New York Yankees have as good of a shot as any other supposed contender due to the strong likelihood that they will still be playing in October.

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